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Friday, May 13, 2016

The Cook Report Bodes Well For Democrats

The Cook Report has recently published a new electoral map which shows a major advantage for Democrats in the upcoming general election.

Sixteen states/districts (190 electoral votes) are currently "Solid Democrat" and two states/districts (27 votes) are "Likely Democrat."  In contrast, only nineteen (142 votes) are "Solid Republican" and only two (21 votes) are "Likely Republican."  There are twelve states/districts (158 votes) in the middle (between "Leaning Democrat," "Leaning Republican," and "Toss-Up.")

Since the Dems have a 54-vote advantage in the Strong/Likely department, that means they don't need as many votes from the middle. If Dems win all their "Strong" and "Likely" states, they only need 53 electoral votes from the "Leaning Democrat" category.

In other words, for a Republican to win the White House in November, they would need all the "Strong Republican" votes, all the "Likely Republican" votes, all the "Leaning Republican" votes, all the "Toss Up" votes, and a third of the "Leaning Democrat" votes.

Of course, the general hasn't officially started yet and the electoral map can change. However, this is an undeniably huge advantage. Democrats should be celebrating.